Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-19

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-09) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-09 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-09. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-09. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-09. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-09. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-09)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-09) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Afghanistan 49 (26 – 68) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 180 (8.5 – Inf)
Algeria 106 (77 – 139) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 28 (9 – Inf)
Argentina 94 (64 – 119) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -110 (15 – Inf)
Armenia 52 (28 – 72) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 12 (5 – Inf)
Australia 45 (21 – 63) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.6 (21000 – Inf)
Austria 136 (101 – 172) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.8) -7.6 (Inf – Inf)
Azerbaijan 50 (31 – 71) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -12 (54 – Inf)
Bahrain 112 (77 – 145) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 15 (6.7 – Inf)
Bangladesh 253 (212 – 303) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 1.9) 6.6 (4.8 – 10)
Belarus 457 (391 – 521) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 18 (11 – 59)
Belgium 1377 (1259 – 1481) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -130 (79 – Inf)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 45 (26 – 66) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -110 (9.4 – Inf)
Brazil 2456 (2300 – 2606) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 17 (12 – 28)
Cameroon 44 (25 – 61) Unsure 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 14 (4.8 – Inf)
Canada 1535 (1416 – 1647) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 40 (22 – 280)
Chile 423 (363 – 481) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 540 (25 – Inf)
China 132 (90 – 174) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 13 (6.5 – Inf)
Colombia 141 (106 – 175) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -15 (Inf – Inf)
Cote dIvoire 34 (16 – 50) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -21 (13 – Inf)
Croatia 48 (21 – 71) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -18 (16 – Inf)
Cuba 53 (31 – 74) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) -230 (10 – Inf)
Czechia 121 (89 – 151) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 0.9) -10 (Inf – Inf)
Denmark 185 (149 – 227) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -22 (82 – Inf)
Djibouti 110 (82 – 142) Increasing 1.9 (1.4 – 2.3) 4.8 (3.4 – 8.5)
Dominican Republic 237 (192 – 279) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 29 (12 – Inf)
Ecuador 222 (174 – 265) Decreasing 0.5 (0.4 – 0.6) -4.3 (Inf – Inf)
Egypt 161 (121 – 196) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 170 (15 – Inf)
Estonia 35 (15 – 54) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -110 (7.4 – Inf)
Faroe Islands 17 (0 – 49) Unsure 2 (0 – 4.8) -3.1 (0.41 – Inf)
Finland 106 (76 – 135) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -19 (56 – Inf)
France 2706 (2546 – 2889) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -18 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 3008 (2833 – 3159) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -19 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana 66 (39 – 97) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2) 8.9 (4.3 – Inf)
Greece 30 (11 – 47) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -7.9 (53 – Inf)
Guinea 46 (24 – 68) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.8) 11 (4.5 – Inf)
Hungary 82 (51 – 106) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -15 (54 – Inf)
Iceland 14 (1 – 25) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.2 – 1.1) -6.5 (10 – Inf)
India 1022 (935 – 1119) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 26 (15 – 75)
Indonesia 343 (289 – 394) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 32 (14 – Inf)
Iran 1558 (1443 – 1676) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -33 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 28 (12 – 43) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -7.2 (290 – Inf)
Ireland 849 (756 – 927) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 48 (21 – Inf)
Israel 357 (307 – 420) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -68 (40 – Inf)
Italy 3230 (3048 – 3378) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -29 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 527 (458 – 585) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -61 (32 – Inf)
Kazakhstan 116 (83 – 145) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 9.8 (5.6 – 35)
Kosovo 28 (11 – 43) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -54 (7.7 – Inf)
Kuwait 90 (60 – 115) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -88 (15 – Inf)
Kyrgyzstan 23 (7 – 37) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -18 (8.5 – Inf)
Latvia 11 (0 – 21) Unsure 0.8 (0.3 – 1.3) -5 (5.9 – Inf)
Lebanon 17 (0 – 31) Unsure 1.1 (0.3 – 1.8) -10 (3.9 – Inf)
Lithuania 41 (23 – 59) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 190 (7.3 – Inf)
Luxembourg 49 (28 – 69) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -11 (25 – Inf)
Malaysia 111 (78 – 141) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -23 (40 – Inf)
Mexico 455 (395 – 512) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 26 (14 – 280)
Moldova 128 (95 – 162) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 100 (13 – Inf)
Morocco 195 (152 – 236) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.7) 8.7 (5.7 – 18)
Netherlands 974 (889 – 1068) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -38 (Inf – Inf)
New Zealand 12 (0 – 22) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.2 – 1.1) -3.6 (6.4 – Inf)
Niger 24 (7 – 40) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -7.1 (54 – Inf)
North Macedonia 68 (39 – 94) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 15 (5.8 – Inf)
Norway 96 (70 – 125) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -26 (26 – Inf)
Oman 81 (53 – 110) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 12 (5.5 – Inf)
Pakistan 440 (378 – 500) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (8.5 – 25)
Palestine 14 (1 – 25) Unsure 1.6 (0.5 – 2.7) 3.9 (1.1 – Inf)
Panama 178 (139 – 215) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -29 (44 – Inf)
Peru 1307 (1197 – 1416) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 15 (11 – 24)
Philippines 239 (192 – 283) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 21 (10 – Inf)
Poland 354 (299 – 408) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -110 (32 – Inf)
Portugal 509 (436 – 569) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Puerto Rico 44 (22 – 64) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -20 (14 – Inf)
Qatar 354 (299 – 407) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 10 (7.1 – 18)
Romania 362 (307 – 413) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -260 (29 – Inf)
Russia 3351 (3182 – 3524) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.6) 9 (7.8 – 10)
Saudi Arabia 548 (480 – 611) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 12 (8.5 – 21)
Serbia 468 (404 – 525) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 9.4 (6.8 – 15)
Singapore 524 (453 – 589) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 1.8) 7 (5.5 – 9.5)
Slovakia 69 (42 – 91) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 9.8 (4.6 – Inf)
South Africa 124 (93 – 155) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 14 (6.9 – 270)
South Korea 27 (9 – 44) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -23 (8.8 – Inf)
Spain 4586 (4390 – 4791) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -52 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden 558 (484 – 621) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) -370 (30 – Inf)
Switzerland 372 (313 – 423) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.8) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 34 (14 – 50) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -9.6 (35 – Inf)
Tunisia 37 (19 – 55) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.7) 13 (4.6 – Inf)
Turkey 4360 (4157 – 4547) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -970 (84 – Inf)
Ukraine 491 (419 – 554) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 9.6 (7 – 15)
United Arab Emirates 425 (369 – 488) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 23 (13 – 170)
United Kingdom 4937 (4732 – 5134) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -66 (430 – Inf)
United States of America 29523 (29002 – 30010) Likely decreasing 1 (1 – 1) -76 (Inf – Inf)
Uruguay 15 (2 – 26) Unsure 1 (0.4 – 1.6) -19 (5.2 – Inf)
Uzbekistan 117 (82 – 148) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 16 (7.3 – Inf)

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